Author: Max Redd http://www.ReddRacing.co.uk
As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so more and more people are looking to profit from horse racing by laying horses to lose. But what is the best strategy? On the face of it, one might think that simply betting that the outsider will lose is a quick way to make easy money. In reality, the best horse to bet against is the race favourite.
Betting that the outsider at 20/1 will lose will be fine to start with, and doubtless you will soon develop a winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than later that 33/1 shot with ‘absolutely no chance’ will come home in front, and you may well have laid him at a price of 52.00 (for example) on Betfair. BOOM! There goes all your hard-earned winnings, and more!
Generally a horse will be the favourite because it has the weight of the market’s money behind it, which forces the price down. Simple economics. There will be a point however, where the horse’s price is too low compared to it’s actual chance of winning. Beyond this ‘true’ price is where the layers will start to make a profit.
So we go ahead with this strategy, and we proceed to lay every favourite, right? Wrong.
Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This is how bookmakers have made their profit for generations. But they are not priced too low every time – sometimes a favourite is the most likely horse to win a race for very good reason.
If we took the simplified approach of laying every favourite, after a while betting on the exchanges we would remain around the break even point, because the exchange markets are a very efficient barometer of probability. However, after paying commission on our winnings, we would watch our account slowly draining away like water down a plug-hole. Not good.
So how do we know which favourites are true favourites, and which are weak or vulnerable?
One method is to analyse the positive aspects of a horse’s form. It will not surprise you to learn that more favourites win when they have fewer question marks against them. This is not rocket science, but taking the time to separate strong contenders from weak favourites will give you the ‘edge’ to make that all-important profit.
Below is a list of form criteria you can apply to the market leader in any given race:
1. Horse and Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of today’s race.
2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either today’s track or one with similar characteristics.
3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks.
4. Horse and Race Distance: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to run competitively over today’s distance.
5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.
6. Horse and Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle today’s ground.
7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on today’s track.
8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer must have had at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 days.
9. Jockey and Track: Jockey must have at least a 10% strike rate on today’s track.
Rating a favourite as ‘weak’ or otherwise is entirely subjective, but you may determine (for example) that a horse with 3 or more question marks or negatives over their form would be considered a horse worth opposing.
As always the question of price will come into the equation. A horse with several boxes left to ‘tick’ in the list above may be a favourite in a weak race at 5/1. This may be a fair price, and you may not want to get involved in laying him to lose.
On the other hand, when a 2yo filly steps hoof onto the track for the first time, and is offered at odds-on simply because she is ridden by Frankie Dettori on behalf of the Godolphin training empire, then you may want to consider taking her on.
In summary: race favourites are often a profitable source of potential Lay Bets, as they are often ‘over-bet’ and offered at prices too low compared to their actual chance of winning. Take the time to analyse key aspects of the horse’s form and judge whether they are a ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ favourite. If you decide they are vulnerable to defeat and the price is short enough, then you have identified a good lay bet.
About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk
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can i daily get tips on horse racing, at least five horses?online uk horse racing, can i get tips of the best horses that run daily.
About Author
Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk
About the Author:
About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk
You’re really good man. You’ve got excellent talent.
Nice work, you did pretty good.
Perfect.
As I always say, there's a village missing it's idiot somewhere and they can usually find them trolling on here. They think that if they repeatedly ask the same question and rave their PETA misinformation, that someone might actually end up agreeing with them. Let's hope not!
Most owners actually don't make money racing.
Only about 70% of all Thoroughbreds ever get to the races, and only about 55% of all Thoroughbreds ever win a race. It costs about $25,000, give or take a few thousand, to keep a horse in training for a year; more for the major racing centers like New York or Southern California, less for tracks away from the major population centers. roughly 10-15% of all Thoroughbreds earn enough money during the course of a year to cover their training expenses.
Some owners can recover the residual value of their horse at the end of its racing career by selling, but most racehorses– particular male racehorses– have residual value that is low or even zero at the end of their racing careers.
Basically, most people who are in racing are in it for the excitement, the fun, the competition; and the hope that maybe they'll be the one to strike it rich with a horse like Mine That Bird– or one of his relatives. It's the hope of getting that one special horse, plus the love of racing in general, that keeps people going.
woww that’s really relax and beatiful soung .good picture of jhony depp !
Its people like you, that pissin' an moanin', that ruin the world…………………..
Very nice!!
You need to go to a reputable trainer and tell him you're interested in buying a horse. Tell him how much you've got to spend and he'll do the rest. He might have a horse in his yard that's already for sale or he might go out and buy one for you.
Don't go buying horses over the internet!
The flat trainer Richard Hannon has had some good successes with cheaply bought horses in the past. He trains in Wiltshire.
http://richardhannonracing.tv/
Don't forget you'll have to contribute towards the horse's training expenses every week so the more people involved the cheaper it will be.
amazing! Willy teach me how to paint like you!
I think this gives a good explanation of the definition of the various track conditions:
http://www.ultimatecapper.com/track-conditions.htm
That said, it's important to note that because there is no standard for track composition in terms of sand, silt, clay, loam, organic matter, and every track is different, each track plays differently. To cite one example, the track at Aqueduct has a high sand content because the dates run at Aqueduct are typically the wettest times of the year. So the track superintendent finds it beneficial to have a lot of sand in the track to assure fast drainage. The result is that when there has been a lot of rain, the main track at Aqueduct can be like a wet beach– it packs down and gets harder. You may get faster times on such a track than when the surface is rated "fast".
Churchill Downs historically has had a high clay content in the track surface, with the result that the track can be very cuppy at best of times ("cuppy" means that when a horse strides on it, the hoofprint forms a "cup" on the surface of the track; it has depth, and it holds its shape rather than immediately crumbling) and can be really sticky and tiring when it gets wet.
A lot depends, too, on how the track superintendent deals with rainfall. At Santa Anita and Hollywood Park in the pre-synthetic days, the superintendents had enough time in most cases to get out the heavy roller equipment and "seal" the track before rain came. Basically when they seal the track, they're rolling and compacting the surface so that instead of water penetrating and making the track muddy down deep, the water just runs off the surface and drains away. Of course, the problem with this is that even when they opened the track surface in preparation for the day's racing, there was some compaction and the track would tend to get harder. During some of our rare wet winters, the track superintendent would sometimes have to close the track to exercise in order to do deep harrowing and conditioning of the subsurface and base after the track had been repeatedly sealed.
With synthetic surfaces, I think everyone, including the people who manufacture and install them, is still on a learning curve of what has to be done to keep the track consistant and safe in all kinds of weather.
From a handicapping standpoint, the important thing to remember is that each track is unique, and that you have to become familiar with what the weather conditions do to the the individual track surface.
You can go to the site for the Daily Racing Form at it should answer your questions also at any track the program will have instructions inside the cover explaining how to read the form and also how to make all wagers including the exotics.
:O
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how is this not a real photo?
http://www.xpressbet.com
You have to sign up, but it's completely free. There's no fees for watching or betting. And they have like 60 tracks you can watch. It's a great service.
Several tracks have their own broadcasts on their website, but xpressbet is great because you can get all the tracks in one place and place a bet if you'd like.
hm i couldn’t tell the difference between photograph and painting comparing the final resault.
This is sick
Hi,
A jockey has a very dangerous job, but a very important one. He must guide the horse in the correct way as to know how his horse runs, and performs during a race. It is his responsibility to get his horse in the correct position, and know how to guide him through traffic going at very high speeds while the rest of the field is fighting to do the same. Jockey error has played a huge roll in injuries to other jockey's and horses. The horse does the running, but it is up to the jockey to know how fast the horse runs, and when to ask the horse for his best without compromising. So the roll of a jockey is very important. Without a jockey it would be like racing a car with no driver. Hope this explains it to you.
Brilliant Willy, Just Brilliant =D
i don't like the gambling, the horse race is alright, mainly only good in the Kentucky Derby when you are really rooting for a horse to get the triple crown